As of March 30, 2023, Donald Trump, former President of the United States of America, has been indicted. Let me say that again. It is believed that the President of the United States committed a crime and will have to stand trial for that same crime. However, unless and until a jury finds him guilty, he is innocent under rule of the Constitution. The prosecution’s precise case theory is not public yet, but the case is focused on a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 campaign. While many have questioned Trump’s eligibility to run in the 2024 election while he is facing criminal charges, there is no constitutional bar on a defendant, or even a felon, running for President. Constitutional experts have explained that due to previous Supreme Court rulings, Congress cannot add qualifications to the office for President.
Even if we were to amend the Constitution, where would we draw the line? It is difficult to do it based on the severity of the crime, as that can differ by state, federal law, and opinion. However, would we want someone serving a life-long sentence to have the privilege and opportunity to run for President? Do we trust our democratic system enough to weed those people out? If Donald Trump is a less extreme example of someone who should not be eligible to run, we need to act now in order to prevent and restrict those who are more extreme examples.
As for his candidacy in 2026, Trump recently said at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference that he would “absolutely” stay in the race for President even if he were to be criminally indicted. In fact, he seems even more motivated than he was during previous years, saying, “In 2016, I declared I am your voice. Today I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice, and for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” He is definitely ramping up this campaign, despite his recent controversy. On top of this newfound inspiration, there is also newfound confidence. Trump recently stated that he thinks the criminal charges will “probably enhance [his] numbers.” From this, we can conclude that although being a defendant, or even being incarcerated would definitely make his campaign more difficult, it would be a practicality issue and not a legal one.
Many have expressed their doubts about Trump’s 2024 campaign. However, in the end it all comes down to the voters. As James Sampler, a constitutional law professor at Hofstra University, said, “The Constitution sets the minimum requirements, but leaves the rest up to the voters.” As proven on January 6 when his supporters raided the capitol building in an attempt to undo the election results, and when the Access Hollywood tape was released, showing Trump saying extremely vulgar things, Trump has gained a pretty dedicated support group. He is also very aware of this, recognizing it in a speech at a campaign stop in Iowa, saying, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters” so I can only assume that his confidence going into this race will not be completely unsupported. Despite this, I do not think he will be able to gather the left-over votes he needs. After losing the popular vote in 2016, and only winning by a hair in the electoral college, he would need even more support than he did then. I think the stain on his reputation from his charges, in combination with a multitude of other negative events, will be enough to keep him out of office for another four years.
