As snow pitter-patters on the roof above and you crawl back into bed, the anticipation of snow football, sledding, and hot cocoa is overwhelming. Nothing beats the exhilaration of a snow day. Luckily for students in the district, they don’t have to agonizingly wait for an early morning website pop-up or an automated phone call to learn about the possibility of school getting canceled.
Mr. Rybnik is a challenge teacher at Bala Cynwyd Middle School and has been teaching in the district for over 20 years. Apart from being an educator, Rybnik worked for the Pennsylvania Air National Guard for 6 years. Rybnik started posting his predictions to a student-accessible page in 2015. His snow day predictions typically contain two main components: a percentage of school off/two-hour delay and a rationale for that percentage. The rationale section consists of more in-depth details about the particular storm in question such as fluff factor, direction of the storm, and wind chill. Rybnik links these statistics to a percentage by evaluating the mobility of buses and how difficult it will be to clear the roads.
Since releasing his predictions to the public, Rybnik has gained increasing traction from students who now plan their potential days off according to his predictions. Andrew Badt ’24 relays, “If Mr. Rybnik says there is over a 50% chance of a snow day, I do not set my alarm.” Plenty of other students place a similar level of trust in his forecasts. In a random survey conducted by The Merionite, every student said they were at least 70% confident in Rybnik’s weather predictions, with over half of the respondents indicating they are at least 90% confident in his forecasts. Not only do Rybnik’s predictions resonate with students, but teachers also use his website for themselves as well. LM Latin teacher Ms. Fireman describes, “I use a mix of different sources ahead of time to determine the impact of a snow storm including Mr. Rybnik’s website.” Over the past decade, Rybnik’s predictions have stayed in the limelight for students and teachers to access.
So far this year, Mr. Rybnik has been stellar once again. On January 3rd, there was talk of a storm potentially bringing in snow which would cause transportation difficulties. Rybnik quickly put this theory to rest as he explained, “The more I see, the less I am convinced that this upcoming storm should amount to much.” Rybnik’s next feat occurred on January 9th. A heavy rain storm swept through the district and left people questioning whether we would be able to jubilate over the first “snow day” in almost two years. However, Rybnik assured his fans, “Assume you are going in for a full day of school.” It was during the following week of January 15th when Rybnik caught fire. First, Rybnik predicted a 60% chance of a snow day on January 16th correctly. He then followed up with a firm two-hour delay prediction saying, “Tomorrow has already been called for a 2-hr. delay. Do not anticipate any changes from this call. But we do have another storm in the upper northwest making its way towards us on Friday.” A final 85% snow day prediction on Thursday night preceded a snow day on Friday which capped a perfect week of forecasts. Most recently, Rybnik correctly predicted an unprecedented snow day on February 13th during a week that consisted of temperatures up to 50 degrees. Initially, Rybnik believed there was a 70% chance of a snow day but then bumped that percentage up to 85% later in the night. Even when mother nature seems unpredictable, Rybnik has risen to the challenge. So far this year, he is perfect.
Mr. Rybnik’s weather predictions have a massive impact on the district throughout the winter, adding some joy to a typically gloomy time of year. Even though there are many weather services that provide information on winter storms, there are none quite like Rybnik. His predictions are unparalleled. His conclusions are inevitably truthful. And as he approaches the end of yet another winter of successful weather forecasts, it is hard to escape the supposition that Mr. Rybnik has rendered himself the greatest snow day predictor of all time.
